今天看到一篇好的文章,先贴这里了,等有空了再翻译出来吧。在大的潮流和总体框架思维上,它是具有纲领意义的,当然在一些细节执行层面上,可能作者的实际经验和思考深度还有所欠缺。不过这无损这篇文章的宏观思维价值。
优化过的图片所具有的美感逐步变成突破这种杂乱的强有力的工具。不管是私营企业还是上市公司,操纵图片来传递语义或信号都变得越来越复杂。高分辩率和便携性将变成主流。非常有趣的是,与此同时图片的标记和搜索会具有侧面的影响力。
维基模式正在变成一种事实上的全球性的私营企业内的集合模式。它对于上市企业似乎也产生了同样的效果:维基化,维基健康医疗系统,维基灾难恢复工作。我们将会从拟子的力量或缺乏头绪中得到经验和教训。
更多的电子生活中的虚拟交互将会对自我感觉和社区规范产生不可估量的影响。从以往来看,现实生活决定了规范,而虚拟世界会反映出这些,但未来反向作用也会越来越可能。游戏将变成探索生活方式的实验室,而这以往都是由文学戏剧所扮演的角色。
服务型的公司还没有完全认识到这点。为了便于把他们和传统的组织思维联系起来,他们倾向于把他们的努力称为产品,极大地曲解了他们的本质,并导致公司不能正确理解消费者体验,需求和价值的全部。
如果电子服务都是由广告来提供资金的话,那么消费最终会变成一种模式。随着时间的推移,人们和文化会对此厌烦,而由大众提供的内容将因为把人们从频繁地被广告骚扰中解脱而成为新的流行。
随着符号操纵变得越来越透明,它引起了人们对他所关联的任何组织的不信任,而依赖于信仰的传统宗教会因此被数字沟通所破坏。于是,冥思,瑜伽和其他不借助外力的精神体验变得越来越有吸引力。
This
piece follows up a request from the World Economic Forum for thoughts
about the Digital Ecosystem, in preparation for framing the 2007 agenda
at Davos. I would really appreciate any comments that would expand,
improve, or correct these lines of thought.
10. Images are king. Verbal content, by virtue of
its sheer volume, is increasingly perceived as noise. We are entering
a new era of collage, where the mind of the viewer is the assembling
artist. Verbalization happens post facto, the residue of headline
skimming and subconscious synthesis.
The esthetics of digitally enhanced images will become increasingly
powerful as a vehicle for cutting through the clutter. Manipulating
semantics or semiotics via images will become increasingly
sophisticated, both in the private and public sectors. High-definition
displays and portable form factors will be popular mass markets.
Indexing and searching images, on the other hand, while technologically
interesting, will be of peripheral impact.
9. Songs are the spiritual property of the young.
They construct their identities around them and feel they own the
rights to them in a way that no economic contract could interpret.
Sharing songs and sets of songs is a type of free speech. By contrast,
films have nowhere near this visceral appeal and matter much less.
Operating on songs is the paradigm for the new creative consumer who
will not create content so much as modify it and send it along. Tools
and sites that let people extract, reframe, and re-present will be core
enablers, a la MySpace, UTube, and the like.
8. There is no place to hide. This is good for
exposing the horrors of man’s inhumanity to man. It is bad for the
privacy advocates. It is meaningless for the security forces as no
command-and-control big brother can keep up with the sheer volume of
self-organizing chaotic systems in flux.
Next-generation security will organize around the person and the
personal identity instead of the data and the institution. Mobility
will only complicate this challenge.
7. Wikis rule and “crowd-sourcing” works!
Outsourcing tasks to a self-organizing community of volunteers, a la
open source software, is proving to be a powerful tactic for tapping
into the collective wisdom and experience of the planet. Surprisingly,
this mechanism is nowhere near as susceptible to demagoguery as edited
media.
The wiki model is becoming a de facto collaboration paradigm within
private enterprises with global reach. It seems likely to spawn
comparable efforts in the public sector: a wiki-versity, a
wike-health-care-system, a wiki-disaster-recovery-effort. We will get
object lessons in the power of memes (or the lack thereof).
6. Games tell all. Anthropologists of future
centuries can be spared digging through layers of sedimentary rock.
Instead they will just need to find game machines that let them play
World of Warcraft or play back the history of an avatar in Second
Life. All the metaphors of contemporary culture are being acted out in
one or another corner of this virtual universe. And currency exchanges
are beginning to link this universe to the physical one.
The emphasis on symbolic interactions in a digital lifestyle will
have unpredictable effects on self-perception and social norms.
Historically the real world has set the norms and the digital world
reflected them, but the obverse can be expected to be true going
forward. Games can become living laboratories to explore strategies
for living, a role played by literature and drama in ages past.
5. Services displace products. In the digital
world, as bits substitute for atoms, products are reconceived as
services. This is the threat that Google poses against Microsoft.
Services companies still have not completely caught up with this.
They tend to describe their offers as products, which, although
convenient as a means for integrating them into traditional
organizational thinking, profoundly misrepresents their dynamics and
causes companies to miss whole dimensions of consumer experience, need
and value.
4. Everything is media. While advertising will not
pay for everything, everything will become a potential opportunity to
advertise. This means that at least some technology adoption life
cycles can be short-circuited by providing the disruptive innovation
for free.
If advertising is the default funder of digital offers, then
consumption is the ultimate paradigm. Over time people and cultures
will weary of this, and socially constructed content will become more
pervasive as an escape from constantly being pitched.
3. Outsourcing and offshoring are inevitable.
Digitization of work is profoundly world-flattening. In an
Internet-enabled world, as work itself becomes digitized, markets
cannot be protected. This will be hugely dislocating to the developed
economies in the short term. Longer term, it will be the single most
effective tool to combat global poverty and its cousin terrorism.
Instrumentation and institutions that create visibility and control
over processes that span geographical and enterprise boundaries will
become increasingly powerful. Everything will ultimately resolve to a
Service Level Agreement and a series of compliance-assuring mechanisms.
2. Symbolic competence creates competitive advantage.
On the web, as one cartoonist famously noted, no one knows you are a
dog. All they experience about you is a function of your ability to
manipulate vocabulary and symbols.
This puts liberal arts education in high relief. The digital world
will move from being an engineering phenomenon to a cultural one.
Memes, brands, reputations, causes—all will seek to recruit the most
powerful symbolists to their ends.
1. Omnipresent distractions increase the need for inner peace.
Digital systems intrude into every aspect of life and, unrestricted and
unbalanced, can overwhelm our perception of personal and social
values. The resulting alienation will lead to a search for direct
personal spiritual experience.
Traditional religion, with its reliance on belief, will be
undermined by digital communications, for as symbolic manipulations
becomes increasingly transparent, it creates distrust in any
institution that engages in it. In this context, meditation, yoga, and
other forms on non-mediated spiritual experience will become
increasingly attractive.
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